Canadian Inflation (October 2025) – November 17, 2025

Canadian prices, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 2.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis in October, down from a 2.4 per cent increase in September. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI was up 0.1 per cent in October, equivalent to a 1.5 per cent increase on an annualized basis. The CPI ex-gasoline increased by 2.6 per cent in October, matching the previous month. Additionally, shelter price growth fell by 0.1 points to 2.5 per cent in October, while food prices increased by 3.4 per cent year-over-year, 0.4 points lower than September. In BC, consumer prices rose 2.0 per cent year-over-year in October, up from 1.9 per cent in September. The Bank of Canada's preferred measures of median and trimmed inflation, which strip out volatile components, fell to 2.9 per cent and 2.7 per cent year-over-year, respectively.

Much of the downward pressure in October’s CPI print was driven by lower year-over-year gasoline prices, while several major aggregates also saw slower price growth compared to September. Nonetheless, 3-month annualized core inflation is 2.6 per cent, closely aligned with the Bank’s perceived level of underlying inflation. Looking ahead, the Bank appears poised for a rate hold during its final meeting of the year, barring a catastrophic third quarter performance by the Canadian economy in this month’s quarterly GDP print.

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